A Tale of Two Games: A New Way to See Our Food and Health Systems
Imagine two different games of chance.
Surendra Reddy7 min read
In the first game, 100 people are in a room, and each flips a coin once. If it’s heads, they win $50. If it’s tails, they lose $40. At the end of the game, some people will be up, some will be down, but on average, the room as a whole will have made money. The unlucky person who lost $40 isn’t kicked out of the game of life; their fate doesn’t affect anyone else’s.
Now, consider a second game. One person has to flip that same coin 100 times in a row. The odds on each flip are still favorable. But what happens if they hit a string of tails? Their starting pot of money shrinks, and each subsequent loss becomes more devastating. A few bad flips in a row could wipe them out completely, ending their game forever (1, 2).
The first game is what mathematicians call an ergodic system. What happens to the group on average is a good predictor of what will happen to an individual over time (3, 4). The second game is non-ergodic. The average outcome of the group is meaningless, because one person’s path is subject to the risk of ruin. In a non-ergodic system, survival is the only thing that matters (1, 2).
The difference is easiest to see with the two games set side by side.
| First game | Second game | |
|---|---|---|
| Who plays | 100 people, one flip each | One person, 100 flips in a row |
| What the average tells you | A reliable guide to the room | Nothing about this player's path |
| What a bad run does | Costs one person; the game goes on | Can end the game for good |
| Governing question | What is the expected value? | Do I survive the sequence? |
For decades, we have been viewing our agriculture, food, and health systems as if they are the first game—a predictable, ergodic system where we can optimize for the average. But in reality, for both the farmer in the field and the individual at the dinner table, it is the second game—a high-stakes, non-ergodic journey where a single bad outcome can be irreversible.
The Ergodic View: A World of Averages
In an ergodic world, the past is a reliable guide to the future. It’s a world of averages where things even out over time (4). Think of a casino floor. The casino knows that over millions of hands of blackjack, the house edge will guarantee a profit. The average outcome of the entire group of players predicts the casino’s success (2).
Our modern systems were brilliantly built on this logic:
- Industrial Agriculture: Focuses on maximizing the average yield across millions of acres. It assumes that if you apply the same inputs (fertilizers, pesticides) everywhere, you’ll get a predictable, average output (5).
- The Food Industry: Produces food based on the average consumer’s palate and budget, optimizing for shelf life and low cost across a massive population (5).
- Reactive Healthcare: Develops treatments based on the average patient’s response in large clinical trials, managing diseases after they appear (6).
This mindset works beautifully at a large scale—until we look at the individual. Because these systems are not dealing with repeatable coin flips. They are dealing with soil, livelihoods, and human bodies, all of which are fragile and subject to irreversible damage.
The Non-Ergodic Reality: When the Path Is Everything
In a non-ergodic system, the sequence of events matters profoundly. One catastrophic event can knock you out of the game permanently. The most famous example is Russian Roulette: if six people play once, five will walk away rich. The average outcome for the group is fantastic. But if one person plays six times, their outcome is certain death (2, 7). The average is irrelevant.
This is the reality for the individual farmer and the individual consumer.
How We Can All Play a Better Game
The fundamental challenge is a mismatch of models.
This means shifting our focus from optimizing the average to protecting the individual.
- On the Farm: Building Resilience, Not Just Yield. Instead of chasing average yield at all costs, a non-ergodic approach to farming focuses on avoiding ruin. This is the core principle of regenerative agriculture. By diversifying crops, improving soil health, and integrating livestock, farmers create a resilient ecosystem that can better withstand shocks like drought or pests (6, 8). They are not just maximizing this year’s average crop; they are ensuring the farm survives for the next 100 years.
- On Your Plate: Preventing Disease, Not Just Treating It. A non-ergodic approach to health focuses on preventing the irreversible outcome of chronic disease. This is the foundation of the “Food is Health” movement. Instead of waiting for the “average” person to get sick and then treating them, this model uses nutrient-dense, whole foods to maintain health over an individual’s entire lifetime (6, 9). It recognizes that the cumulative, path-dependent nature of our diet is what ultimately determines our health.
The most powerful solution lies in connecting these two ideas. When we create a system that provides direct feedback between individual health outcomes and the farm practices that produced the food, we help the entire chain see its non-ergodic reality. A farmer is no longer just producing an average commodity; they are contributing to a specific person’s long-term health journey. A consumer is no longer just eating an average meal; they are making a choice that directly influences the resilience of a specific piece of land.
We have been living in a world of averages for a long time, and it has brought us incredible abundance. Now, by also focusing on the individual paths that lead to prosperity or ruin, we can build a future that is designed for everyone to survive and thrive.
References
- Dellanna, L. (n.d.). Ergodicity: How irreversible outcomes affect long-term performance in work, investing, relationships, sport, and beyond.
- Pearson, T. (n.d.). Ergodicity: A Simple Explanation of Ergodic vs. Non-Ergodic.
- GBD 2017 Diet Collaborators. (2019). Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The Lancet.
- Gamble, J. (2024, May 29). Living in a Non-Ergodic World. Last Word on Nothing.
- Reddy, Surendra. (2024, Nov 22). Agriculture, Food, and Health: A Chaotic Process of the n-Body Problem (Version 3.5).
- Tufts University, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy. (2023). Food is Medicine Fact Sheet. Tufts Food is Medicine Institute.
- Behavioral Investment. (2020, May 13). We need to talk about ergodicity.
- Danone. (2021). Danone Regenerative Agriculture.
- Hawaii Health Matters. (2022). Geisinger’s Fresh Food Farmacy.